HIV Eradicated : A Dream Realized

Just over fifty years ago, there were approximately fifty million smallpox cases in the world. In the 20th century alone, nearly 500 million deaths could be attributed to this disease; however, in 1979, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that due to vaccinations, smallpox had been completely eliminated from the world. Now, imagine that same announcement being made about HIV. According to some ambitious researchers, this could be just around the corner.

According to recently published research in The Lancet, if populations in countries that have high instances of HIV were to be tested and treated on a regular basis, HIV, like smallpox, could be completely eradicated. The researchers used mathematical models and assumptions to come up with this grand announcement. While some feel that the undertaking would be ambitious and worth a try, some critics feel that logistically it would be impossible to make this happen. Charlie Gilks, an expert on AIDS at the WHO and one of the lead authors of the research stated, “It’s quite a startling result. In a relatively short amount of time, we could potentially knock the epidemic on its head.”

In the mathematical model, Gilks and his fellow researchers gathered data from both Malawi and South Africa (both regions hit hard by HIV infections) and demonstrated how infections could drop by nearly 95% if the region’s population got tested every year and received AIDS treatments straight away if they tested positive, without waiting until they got sick. The model also took into consideration males being regularly circumcised and regional safe sex campaigns. According to published results, AIDS fatalities could be reduced by half between the years 2008 and 2050 with limited instances of HIV infections. If the model was actually put into place, its projected annual costs would be close to $3.5 billion. Myron Cohen who comes from the University of North Carolina adds, “This is certainly beyond the bounds of the current infrastructure for many countries, but that is not a reason to think big.”

Currently WHO estimates roughly 33 million HIV cases worldwide. Of those cases, 3 million patients are on an AIDS drug treatment, 7 million are hoping to begin a drug treatment and 3 million new HIV cases emerged last year.  Some opponents of the study feel that instantly giving a newly infected patient AIDS treatments would not be in the best interest of the patient or already strained health systems in countries like Africa. States Jennifer Kates, a director of HIV policy, “This is not like giving someone a Tylenol. The idea should be explored, but it’s a huge leap.”

Another criticism is that AIDS drug treatments are a very big commitment. Once the treatment begins, it must continue forever. Also as AIDS drugs are fairly new, there is no research done on how long term treatment affects the body. Some also worry that by forcing every HIV patient to immediately take the drugs, it might cause the body to grow resistant to treatment. Because AIDS drugs are extremely powerful, they also come with some extreme side effects including, but not limited to, heart problems, liver problems and vomiting. WHO will be taking a closer look at the outcomes of this research in order to more thoroughly study the research’s feasibility.